Those of us who pay attention to such things know that gas prices are up. Those who admit the truth realize that oil is running out and that as available oil resources dry up, fuel prices — and everything relying on fuel to make it or move it — will also go up. That is, unless we come up with alternative fuels.

Those alternatives just got a little bit better.

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Yesterday’s blog reported on the sharp decline in Salmon off the Pacific Coast and the possibility that the fishing season will be canceled this year. Today it is being reported on Science Daily that things might be even worse.

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Pacific salmon numbers are crashing and that is leaving not only the fish, but a lot of people, up a creek without a boat, paddle, or even water.

Wild chinook salmon is an important food source not only for humans but also for animals in the Pacific Northwest. Salmon are ocean-going fish that return to freshwater streams to spawn. Their survival thus depends on many factors making for complex conservation. In the ocean they must survive predators and fishing as well as the effects of pollution and global warming. In freshwater streams they must also do the predator end-run, but they also have to deal with water levels and pollutants to a much greater degee. In particular, if water levels are low this can make it difficult if not impossible for the fish to get all the way upstream to their ancestral spawning grounds. Farm-raised salmon, as with other farmed fish, are not the same as wild fish — they are behaviorally different and to some degree they are genetically different. Thus, loss of the wild population would be a catastrophic loss.

In 2002, state wildlife officials counted 775,000 adult salmon in the Sacramento River system in Northern California. Last fall there were only 90,000. This year’s numbers are expected to be below 60,000. For most animals, fish included, there is a certain numerical threshhold that determines survival. Chinook salmon levels have already fallen below that 100,000+ level.

The situation has gotten so bad that even commercial fishermen have called for a suspension of fishing to allow the salmon recover. They realize that to do anything else would mean putting them out of business forever.

What’s the solution? Well, at the moment no one knows. Different stakeholders in the salmon industry have different opinions as to the causes and these may or may not mesh with the viewpoints of conservationists and biologists. Water levels, water quality, and habitat distrubance in and around the Sacramento River are high on the list of problems. Pumping of water from the system to serve a large human population with drinking water and irrigation water is an issue but not one easily solved. Habitat disturbance in San Francisco Bay as well as along the rivers can either disorient the fish or leave them vulnerable to exposure. Changes to ocean temperatures and pollution have ruined food sources not only for the fish but also birds and other ocean-going animals. Diseases may also be an issue. None of these problems, though, is easily solved, and it is highly likely that more than one cause lies behind the dropping numbers, further lowering the probability of a ready fix.

Clearly, however, something needs to be done. The fish need to be studied, causes discerned, and measures taken to help the fish rebound. All of this must be done quickly. Fish numbers can’t drop any further. They are already too low. While it is true there are other fish in the sea, salmon aren’t the only ones hurting. Many other important fish species, including certain species of tuna, are also declining. Sure we can eat farmed-fish, but farmed-fish can’t replace fish in the wild. And if the salmon go, so will a lot of other animals that depend on those salmon.

May 1 is the deadline set for a decision on a fishing ban. Only time will tell if we are already too late.